Over the past few decades, climate scientists have made huge strides in understanding the future climate. But after recent weeks of extreme heat and devastating floods it’s clear that, although climate models have provided good information about overall rising temperatures, they can’t be sure what level of destruction each notch on the thermometer will bring.
Climate modelling is extremely complex, but its fundamentals rely on basic physics – X tonnes of emissions will bring Y increase in temperature, with some error bars. Supercomputers have been able to factor in shifts in land use that will change the reflectivity of the Earth’s surface. Improved temperature records helped verify their findings.
But lately, leading researchers have made a painful confession: even their most sophisticated models can’t yet foresee exactly how Earth systems will respond to those higher temperatures.
The influential Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says cranking up global temperature by half a degree will bring “much more extreme weather, and it can be more often, more intense, or extended in duration” – but exactly how much more, it can’t precisely say.
So, for instance, we’ve already had a global temperature rise of about 1.2C: that’s in line with IPCC projections. Yet the panel couldn’t warn us about the appalling heat dome that’s been searing North America. I can’t find heat domes mentioned in the bible of climate change, the IPCC report….
After the truth-shower 