Netanyahu Will Nix a Hostage Deal to Save His Coalition

Yossi Verter

Based on the public utterances of senior rabbis – Ashkenazi and Sephardi alike – with the imminent issue of draft notices to a few thousand yeshiva students, it would seem the coalition is headed for collapse. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant will be sending out some 3,000 notices in the coming month, meaning while the Knesset is in summer recess and the coalition is safe from disintegrating.

But when the lawmakers return, that’s another story. It appears the election will take place in the first quarter of 2025. On top of that is approval of the 2025-2026 budget (assuming there is a budget) that will also shake this government of fiscal thieves and bring to an end the “miracle” of Orit Strock, the thief of them all. Whether it falls in November or not, the current government will have a place in the Guinness Book of World Records.

It easily survived its miserable year of failure that led to the October 7 massacre; the feckless policies that followed; the shameful surrender to Hezbollah and the abandonment of the north of the country; the scandal of the evacuees; and the failed war in Gaza. But, as Naftali Bennett likes to say, based on his miserable experience, a government doesn’t fall by a single blow of the sword but by a thousand little cuts.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s destructive and malevolent government, which at its best did not come close to the worst day of its predecessor, is now being poked left and right. Its leaders roll in the mud and exchange slanders and insults, while a weak, blackmailed prime minister who has lost control tries to keep a semblance of order. If there is one thing everyone can agree on, it is the lack of respect (to say the least) the coalition parties accord Netanyahu. The most experienced among them (Arye Dery, Moshe Gafni) have a perspective from other eras. Today they shake their heads in wonder.

All of this is dwarfed by the negotiations now taking place in Doha and Cairo on a deal to release the hostages held in Gaza. The reports, which include one on Thursday by The Washington Post, talk about the progress being made. But what good will it do if Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir are waiting at the end of the process with veto power on any deal that includes the slightest Israeli concession. Is everything that is happening now and will happen in the coming weeks all for nothing?

Netanyahu will throw a line to the negotiating team and grant them more “flexibility.” (Before he addresses the U.S. Congress and meets with President Joe Biden and maybe Donald Trump in less than two weeks, he has to show that he is trying for a deal.) But when the moment of truth arrives, he will again scuttle a deal for fear of the coalition collapsing.

If he had in him a shred of humanity and leadership skills, Netanyahu would have taken the offer from Yair Lapid, who said again this week that he would provide a Knesset safety net in the event of a hostage deal. “If he says yes, we will sit down and work out an arrangement,” said the head of the opposition.

What would this “safety net” involve? Lapid refuses to say, but it is reasonable to assume it would include an agreed-upon date for an early election in the first quarter of next year, and for a one-year budget for 2025. Netanyahu would have nothing to lose. After all, there is going to be an election in early 2025. If he plans to run in it, he will be able to point to his freeing of the 120 hostages, the living and the dead. If he thinks his chances of reelection are slim, he can reach a plea deal in his criminal trial at a reasonable price.

But Netanyahu suspects that Lapid’s proposal is tainted by politics; for example, to show the Biden administration ahead of the prime minister’s visit that there is an alternative coalition ready and willing to take office. Such a thought must have crossed Lapid’s mind, but for the record he says, “I have just one goal – to make sure there’s a deal.”

Their finest hour

The fear is that at the end of the hostage-negotiation road lies a dead end, whether it is erected by Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar or by Netanyahu. In the meantime, however, on the Israeli side a common front has been formed in support of reaching a deal. At its head are Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and army Chief of Staff Herzl Halevi.

Both spoke this week at the graduation ceremony of the National Security College. “The deal advances our national and security interests, while the Israel Defense Forces and other security forces know how to overcome the risks that may arise,” said Gallant. Halevi spoke of “basic values required for a model society and a society that cherishes life,” beyond the “importance in the moral and urgent sense of saving lives.” These sentiments, especially Gallant’s, stand in complete contrast to the slogans that Netanyahu, Smotrich, Ben-Gvir and the rest of the partners in abandonment and blood-letting recite from morning to night.

This is not by chance. After nine months of war, Gallant, who assumes his political career (certainly in Likud and probably in general) is coming to an end, and Halevi (who will bear the stain of failure for the rest of his life) realize that this is the last chance to save those who must be saved. Otherwise, there is no meaning to anything they have done since October 7. It is worth dwelling on these two men for a moment.

Gallant became the favorite punching bag of Likud lawmakers and ministers (Moshe Saada, Avichai Boaron, Tally Gotliv and Shlomo Karhi). Gallant is “weak,” ‘incompetent” and “should be fired.” Some of them act as emissaries of the Prime Minister’s Office. Messengers of death. They administer their blows in the Knesset and in the media. From the PMO, leaks emerge that Netanyahu is already looking to replace the defense minister with Gideon Sa’ar or Avigdor Lieberman, though it is unlikely either of them would volunteer to serve as a spare part in the sputtering coalition machine.

Halevi – who has no real differences of opinion with Gallant, and not just on the hostage issue – has become a factor in the opposition to the prime minister. It is no longer certain he will retire immediately after the “intense” phase of the war is over. A defense official said this week in a private conversation that he heard Halevi is considering completing his term. (An IDF spokesperson said the chief of staff is not thinking about this.)

In his farewell speech, IDF Central Command head Yehuda Fuchs’ criticism of settler leaders and the ministers who support them was approved by Halevi, who was present at the ceremony. Nothing is accidental, not even the coordinated messages of the chief of staff and defense minister regarding the need for a hostage deal.

A lot now depends on Gallant, Halevi, Mossad chief David Barnea, Shin Bet security service head Tomer Bar and Maj. Gen. (res.) Nitzan Alon. If we once again are approaching a breakdown, the moral duty of all these five gentlemen will be to loudly say to Netanyahu, “No more.”

Even the country’s president, Isaac Herzog, must no longer be content with philosophical statements. He owes nothing to anyone, except his conscience – and he has one. At the critical moment he must appear in front of the cameras in prime time and tell the public the truth. Otherwise, as with the security mavens, the seven years of his presidency (he has four more left), will have no meaning or value.

When a crook meets a crook

In his decades in politics and almost two decades as prime minister, Netanyahu never developed the tools for dealing with the Ben-Gvir phenomenon – a raging tornado that repeatedly lights him up, spins him around and spits him out, drained and humiliated.

Ben-Gvir abuses Netanyahu as if he were some elderly Palestinian shepherd who crossed his path back in those joyous days in the hills when his living room still featured a portrait of his hero, mass murderer Baruch Goldstein. When Netanyahu returns to the Prime Minister’s Office after another hazing at the hands of the bandit, he looks battered and bruised, his eyes glassy.

Netanyahu is simply not built for this. What unsettles his equilibrium is that for the first time in his career, he is dealing with someone who does a Bibi on him – but on steroids.

We, the observers, have also become accustomed to a certain reality: That in every political encounter, in every conflict (or in every alliance), there is only one player who will always cheat, humiliate, lie, escape commitments and violate agreements.

Take, for example, the “unity” government with Benny Gantz that lasted from May 2020 to June 2021: From the moment the ruling coalition was sworn in, Netanyahu was up to his usual tricks with the naive Gantz. No stunt was spared. Netanyahu did things that no prime minister had ever dared do – not passing a budget (a stunt he may now repeat); violating large parts of the coalition agreement; breaking the law; hiding from his defense and foreign ministers the talks leading to the Abraham Accords agreements with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain; and generally sabotaging his partners every chance he got. Netanyahu acted like a bully and a savage.

Then came Ben-Gvir, and suddenly the prime minister had a new actor in his troupe who, at great cost, used the same techniques that were once exclusively Bibi’s. The minister with the most absurd title in the most absurd government exploits and threatens Netanyahu, leaks confidential deliberations and private conversations (as the prime minister himself often does), creates coalition rules for himself, blackmails Netanyahu and issues ultimatums.

In the latest incident, centered on an amended version of the so-called rabbis law and Ben-Gvir’s condition for support (his being named to the now-defunct war cabinet), no one asked the obvious question: If Ben-Gvir wants to blackmail Netanyahu, why doesn’t he thwart Likud-sponsored legislation?

The probable answer is that the bully doesn’t really think Netanyahu will give him a role in the most sensitive areas of security policy: Gaza, Iran, Lebanon, Syria and the hostages. That is why he is challenging Netanyahu in a way that creates the biggest headache for the premier – a dust-up with Shas, which is the most frustrated and sour party (with the most frustrated and sour leader) in the coalition.

The one conclusion that can be drawn from all this is that Ben-Gvir wants a parliamentary election. He hopes to emerge from it as head of a faction with 10 or 11 Knesset seats in the opposition and, with it, build himself up as the leader of the right.

Ben-Gvir doesn’t want to be the one responsible for bringing down a right-wing government. But he would be happy for someone else – like Shas leader Dery, for instance – to do the dirty work. They also share to some degree the same voters.

Some say Netanyahu’s stubborn refusal to give in to Ben-Gvir’s demand is evidence that he retains some sense of responsibility. You need to understand what Ben-Gvir is demanding: that every time Netanyahu consults on national security, Ben-Gvir will be there. And it doesn’t matter what that body is called – whether it be “war cabinet” or “flea circus.”

The prime minister has the authority to hold consultations in small forums of his choosing. What would happen if Ben-Gvir was inside (beyond the danger of the chronic leaks)? Netanyahu’s rejection will form the core of Ben-Gvir’s election campaign: “I demanded a say and was turned down, so I’m not responsible for the failures, even though I’m inside.”

If his reckless advice were to be accepted, he could claim the credit. If Netanyahu caves in to him, he can declare victory over his boss. If Netanyahu continues to refuse him, Ben-Gvir can continue his rampage, being an opposition within the coalition. For him, in his wisdom and cunning, it’s win-win. For a weakened Netanyahu, it’s lose-lose.

In general, it seems that nothing Ben-Gvir does ever hurts him politically. He is Teflon-coated. Before long, it will be claimed he is a “wizard” – a title that was once reserved for one politician alone.

Sadistic joy

In the good old days of the judicial overhaul, when Israel wasn’t dotted with hundreds of freshly dug graves but huge, inspiring demonstrations, Religious Zionism MK Simcha Rothman enjoyed abusing Justice Ministry officials who had the misfortune to appear in front of the Knesset Constitution, Law and Justice Committee that he chairs. He screamed at them, insulted and abused them. The expression “beggar on horseback” was made for him.

After October 7, Rothman disappeared for a long while. But he has come back to haunt us in recent weeks with deliberations on a series of judicial overhaul-style laws that the coalition wants to complete before the Knesset breaks for summer recess.

Now we have discovered that his sadism isn’t limited to justice officials whom he (justifiably) feels inferior to, but also to the nation’s most unfortunate citizens: the families of the hostages being held in Gaza.

The scandal that occurred in his committee this week could not have happened in any other parliamentary panel. On Rothman’s orders, Danny Elgarat, whose 68-year-old brother Itzhak is still captive, was removed from the room with clearly unreasonable force by Knesset guards after he dared to argue with the brother of another hostage and insulted the Knesset ushers.

Rothman, who was looking for an opportunity to take revenge on Elgarat – a prominent activist for the hostage cause – ordered the guards to eject him from the room, ended the meeting and then fled to his office. There, one can assume, he watched with pleasure on the Knesset Channel what followed: After the violent ejection that lasted for what felt like an eternity, Elgarat needed medical attention. Rothman could have come out of his office and ordered the guards to spare him, but that’s not how the sadist is built.

The remarks by Elgarat that angered Rothman so much came after a representative of the Mothers of Fighters group called State Prosecutor Amit Aisman “a member of Hamas” during the hearing. She said “Hamas members pose as police and prosecutors and receive a salary from the Israeli taxpayer.” Rothman didn’t say a word. He was delighted.

Representatives of the hostage families attend every Knesset committee meeting. The heads of the committees welcome them. Even those who do not wear a kippa know the talmudic dictum: “A man is not held responsible for what he says when in distress.” The satisfaction Rothman feels from abusing the families could be prevented by excluding him from the committee. As has been said: Someone like this should not be ignored.

Source: HAARETZ

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