Wikipedia entry, April 2048.
Israel is a religious Jewish republic with a secular minority on the shores of the Mediterranean Sea. Its regime is currently theocratic and authoritarian. Israel’s history as a state is relatively brief (100 years), though it is part of the long history of the Jewish people. Its official language is Hebrew.
National motto: The Chosen People
National anthem: Ode to David
Head of state: State president
Head of the executive branch: State president
State President: Rabbi Ovadia Yosef (aged 72, grandson of the eponymous founder of the Shas party)
Legislative Assembly: The Sanhedrin
Population: 15 million
Demographics: 25% ultra-Orthodox Jews; 40% religious Jews; 15% secular Jews; 20% Muslims and Druze
Brief survey of history, government, and the economy
In its first 75 years, Israel was a liberal Western state, facing three main challenges: attacks by Arab countries and various terrorist organizations in six wars and numerous smaller conflicts; assimilation of large waves of immigration coming from a wide variety of Jewish communities around the world; economic growth that raised it from a relatively poor country to a country in the top 20 ranked by GDP per capita.
In 2023, two major crises led to far-reaching changes in the state’s character, its demographics and its economy. The first was a series of attempts at judicial and regime changes by an extreme right-wing government, inclusive of ultra-Orthodox parties, led by a populist politician, Benjamin Netanyahu.
These attempted changes, which caused harm to Israel’s democratic processes, resulted in widespread public protest. This protest and the state’s Supreme Court put a stop to the planned judicial overhaul. But in the following decade, Israel underwent far-reaching changes, at first slowly and out of public attention, and later more quickly. The wars described below were one cause for the inattention to these changes.
The second crisis began on October 7, when thousands of activists of the Hamas terrorist group slaughtered over 1,200 people in Israel near the Gaza Strip, wounded many hundreds, burned and destroyed homes and abducted 253 Israelis and foreign nationals into Gaza.
These events led to a lengthy war between Israel and Gaza. The war spread to other fronts, Lebanon and the West Bank, with growing Iranian involvement. The war went on for several years in varying intensity. Some months were quiet, others saw intensive fighting.
These crises brought about many changes: Israel failed to set attainable goals for ending the war, focusing on retaliating against aggression. It had to call in significant reserve forces, causing ongoing damage to its economy; it refused to accept a diplomatic settlement proposed by the United States, the European Union and moderate Arab states, and fell out of favor with them, too. With no clear diplomatic horizon, American support for Israel waned; Israel’s military weakness encouraged aggression.
The 2026 parliamentary elections were cancelled due to the state of emergency. The judiciary was faltering for lack of judicial appointments and for fear of the government. This loss of democratic infrastructure, the economic crisis and growing uncertainty about the future intensified emigration by strong sectors of the economy.
First to leave were high-tech employees, followed by doctors, academics, and even military professionals, particularly from the air force and Military Intelligence. This emigration still continues, over two decades later. The emigrants relocated partly to the United States, partly to other English-speaking countries, and the remainder to southern European countries such as Greece, Spain, and Portugal.
Meanwhile, the regime gradually changed. The Knesset and the government were dissolved and replaced by a religious parliament, the Sanhedrin, elected by the last government and leading rabbis. The Sanhedrin elects the president, who heads the government with no term limits. The jurisdiction of the courts was severely curtailed, while that of rabbinical courts was expanded. The police was reinforced with a national guard, and both organizations took a harsh stand with respect to dissidents. Severe censorship was imposed, and liberal media outlets such as Haaretz and Channel 13 News were shut down.
Foreign investment in Israel quickly declined to nearly zero by 2033. GDP per capita slumped and GDP growth slowed down significantly. Despite the wave of emigration, Israel’s population continued to grow due to high birth rates among the remaining populace. Israel dropped to 65th place in world GDP per capita rankings, on par with countries such as Argentina and Malaysia.
Long droughts and severe heat waves hit the region hard due to global warming, accelerating emigration and socio-economic decline.
With Israel ceasing to be a democracy and in light of its political and military conduct, the United States terminated its longtime support, going as far as imposing sanctions on it. In its place, Israel turned to China and Russia for support, and is now in their sphere of influence. Israel’s threat to use nuclear weapons is the main reason it has not been conquered or vanquished.
The decline in living standards, the regime changes and the growing isolation from the West also led to a rise in crime and increased conflicts between various parts of society. The ultra-Orthodox remain economically disadvantaged, and only a few of them serve in the military, yet their political leaders form the backbone of the state’s ruling body, similar to the regimes in several neighboring Muslim states.
Occasionally, a politician promising to solve Israel’s woes comes into power. However, like Benjamin Netanyahu, whose government was the root cause of the 2023 crises, they only end up making things worse. The civil leadership is typically made up of religious functionaries, while the military leadership is primarily religious-nationalistic.
With time, Israel became more and more similar to Iran, which underwent similar political and economic processes, though these originated in a revolution rather than through gradual change. World Jewry, with the exception of the ultra-Orthodox community, distanced itself from Israel. Israel is deemed an extreme, failed state, undemocratic and illiberal, espousing a radical branch of Judaism and promoting theocratic and authoritarian values.
Eran Yashiv is a professor of economics at Tel Aviv University.
Source: HAARETZ
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