If Donald Trump fails to end the Iran war soon, its effects could last for decades, with unpredictable consequences
It is now clear that the war against Iran is going badly for Donald Trump. Binyamin Netanyahu and the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) may be determined to carry on, but Trump is the war leader in deep trouble.
So radical is this unexpected outcome that the United States may even be facing its Suez moment, like the one that saw France and the UK lose status in 1956, hastening decolonisation in the 1960s. If so, the effects of the Iran conflict could last for decades, well beyond the immediate conflict, and have impacts that change the current world order – with unpredictable consequences.
For the US and Israel, the Iran war is exposing an uncomfortable new world order
Consider the past month and a half. Iran’s theocratic leadership had been crippled by assassinations within days of the start of the assault, but leaders were quickly replaced, and the much-anticipated popular uprising simply did not happen.
Then, within a week, Trump and his ‘secretary of war’ Pete Hesgeth, claimed that the Iranian Navy had been destroyed, that its missiles and drone stocks would not last long, and whatever was left of the Army, Air Force and the Iranian Republican Guard Corps (IRGC) mattered little. Moreover, they said, there was little risk of Iranian missiles, drones or strike aircraft even being able to evade Israeli or US air defences. Trump trumpeted that the Iranians were so desperate to surrender that the end of the war was only a matter of days away.
As it turned out, Trump and Hesgeth were proved wrong in almost every way.
The IRGC, especially, has confounded expectations time and time again. Missiles and armed drone stocks have been far larger than expected and fresh supplies of drones are even being made in back-street workshops across the country. Thousands of Iranians have been killed, and billions of dollars of damage have been done, but Iran survives.
Furthermore, the conflict reflects a skilfully thought-through military strategy. Targeting has repeatedly focused not on prestige sites, but on the eyes and ears of the Israeli and American military….
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Iran caused more extensive damage to U.S. military bases than publicly known
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